Published research is tilting bearish on EUR/USD in the near term, though the picture splits sharply by time horizon.
The bearish camp leans on a firm dollar heading into the Fed meeting and on European stress. Several analysts note the euro is the worst-performing G10 currency this month, with European gas prices surging and investors questioning the region's resilience to the energy shock. One recent note flags that even a French bond rally offered little relief after a sovereign rating was held at Aa3. Another argues the Fed may come in more dovish than markets are pricing.
A contrarian thread sees this as dollar strength, not a European crisis. Those researchers argue sentiment has swung too pessimistic, there is no debt crisis brewing, and the euro screens as roughly 1-1.5% undervalued once a French fiscal risk premium is accounted for.
The published consensus on horizon: near-term support watched around 1.110, with medium-term calls stretching to 1.120-1.130 and even 1.16 by year-end if the ECB keeps a December hike in play.
By the numbers:
• Positioning (CFTC, as of 20 Oct 2026): Euro: speculators (leveraged funds) are net short, 7.8% of open interest. That is the largest net short in a year: crowded short (COT index 0 of 100). The net position fell by 839 contracts on the week.