Published research this week leans bearish on EUR/USD, with most analysts expecting the pair to drift lower — though one voice flags a short-term bounce before the downtrend resumes.
The bear case rests on two pillars. First, eurozone fiscal and political stress — especially the widening gap between French and German government bond yields and uncertainty around France's budget plans — is driving broad euro selling. Several research notes argue this fiscal fragility now outweighs any support the euro might get from the Fed easing off rate hikes.
On specifics, one published view targets a move down to 1.1100–1.1120, citing French debt market instability. Another structural bearish call points to 1.10 or even 1.08, while acknowledging stretched positioning could trigger a near-term tactical bounce.
The lone bullish voice in this week's research comes from a central bank source itself, which expects EUR/USD higher on continued rate tightening and eurozone economic resilience. The real debate: does fiscal risk or monetary policy win out?