Published research this week is lining up firmly bearish on the euro against the dollar across near- and medium-term horizons.
The core argument from analysts centers on French political and fiscal risk — widening spreads on French government bonds, skepticism about Paris's ability to deliver credible fiscal reform, and worries that Japanese investors could pull capital out of French debt. On the US side, researchers point to still-elevated Treasury yields and a Fed that hasn't fully let go of its hawkish stance.
One recently-published view flags rising oil prices as an added headwind that could drag EUR/USD back toward 1.1150–1.1180. A more structural camp argues the eurozone simply can't sustain high rates because underlying growth is too weak, which keeps the dollar favored. The most detailed downside call sees roughly 1.1200 by year-end, with risk of lower levels if peripheral spreads widen further.
The lone dissent is horizon-based, not directional: a contrarian thread sees 1.15 by end-2026 once rate-hike expectations normalize, but still agrees the near term points down.