Published research is sharply split on EUR/USD — and the divide is by time horizon, not by conviction.
Near-term, the bearish camp dominates. Several recently published analyses argue the pair drifts toward 1.10–1.12 over the back half of 2026, citing US growth exceptionalism, a hawkish Fed under Chair Warsh, a more dovish ECB after Lagarde's Sintra remarks (which already nudged the pair below 1.14), and stalled eurozone reform alongside China trade headwinds.
Longer-term, a contrarian thread of research leans the other way. Strategic forecasts point to 1.17–1.20 into 2027, with researchers pointing to above-consensus eurozone inflation, the euro's expanding reserve-currency role, and gradual dollar softening as the Fed eventually holds.
One nuanced view threads both: tactical downside to ~1.13 if the dollar gets a fresh catalyst, but a base case recovery toward 1.15 near-term and 1.20 by late 2027.
The genuine disagreement sits in the cyclical window — same horizon, opposite directions, unresolved.