EUR/USD spent most of the week on the back foot before a tentative late-week turn in tone.
Early in the window, the dominant view was bearish: a hawkish Fed surprise, robust US data, soft German PMIs, and dovish signals from ECB President Lagarde combined to push the pair below 1.14. Several research notes flagged 1.13 as the next test, with some pointing to 1.12 or even the low 1.10s on continued policy divergence. One bearish thread argued fair value sits near 1.11 and looked for a drift toward 1.10.
By the second half of the week, the published consensus shifted somewhat more constructive. Multiple analysts argued the dollar had peaked for now, noting price action stabilizing above 1.13 and bouncing back toward 1.14. The tactical case rested on hawkish Fed pricing looking stretched, with scope for a rebound into the 1.14–1.18 zone later this year if US inflation cools. Longer-horizon forecasts cited ranged from 1.16 to 1.25 over the next one to two years, tied to dollar diversification and narrowing growth gaps.