European government bond yields look set to push higher in the near term, according to recently published research, with the pressure broad-based across German Bunds, French OATs, Italian BTPs, and UK Gilts.
Analysts frame the move as part of an ongoing global bond repricing, driven by sticky inflation and synchronized rate pressure from major central banks. Researchers point to geopolitical headlines, rising energy prices, and fresh country-level inflation data — Spain's in particular — as compounding the upward pressure, with ECB policy still front and center. One published forecast sees eurozone headline inflation reaching 3.5%, well above the 2% target, which the same analysis argues leaves little room for near-term rate cuts and keeps yields elevated.
On UK Gilts, the research consensus splits by horizon rather than by disagreement: tactically, 10-year yields are seen grinding higher as US rates and energy costs override improving fiscal signals; strategically, the same view expects yields to drift toward roughly 4.5% by mid-2027 as inflation normalizes and fiscal credibility rebuilds.