Published research this week leans one way on European bonds: yields and rates are biased higher, with tightening pressure on Eurozone debt still building.
ECB President Lagarde has confirmed a 25bp hike at the September 2026 meeting and flagged inflation staying above target through 2026–2027, citing elevated energy prices, resilient growth, and upside risks. ECB Chief Economist Lane has separately warned of a possible "second wave" of energy-driven inflation.
Where the published views diverge is on magnitude, not direction. One camp of analysts argues markets are overestimating the tightening path, expecting just one more hike (to 2.75%) versus the three or four priced in. Others leave the door open for more if inflation proves sticky.
On the short-end plumbing, research consensus expects euro money market rates — repo, €STR, 6M Euribor — to drift higher as excess liquidity shrinks under ongoing balance sheet reduction. A related published view sees European front-end government yields pushing to new modern highs.
Bottom line from the research: same direction, different intensity.