EU bond research this week converged on one message: the ECB is set to hike, and that's pushing eurozone yields higher across the curve.
Published analysis broadly expected a 25bp deposit rate move at the June 11 meeting, with most researchers penciling in a second hike by September to a 2.50% plateau. A more hawkish thread argued up to four hikes could be needed if wage pressures and energy-driven inflation stay sticky, while a contrarian view suggested markets have overpriced the tightening path given the drag higher energy costs impose on European growth.
On yields, the consensus saw Bund and eurozone 10Y rates staying elevated — one strategic outlook pinned the 10Y around 2.9% into 2027, another saw a 3.1% peak this year. Tactical notes flagged Bunds as attractive near the top of a 2.85%–3.15% range and preferred German duration over US Treasuries. Periphery spreads (Italy, France vs. Bunds) were seen with modest tightening potential if oil normalizes, though France's fiscal trajectory drew caution.