European bond yields look set to grind higher across the curve, according to the published research consensus this week.
The near-term driver is the upcoming ECB meeting. Most analysts argue a 25bp hike is locked in, and several emphasize that hawkish forward guidance — stressing inflation risk and openness to more tightening — could push yields above what markets already price. One longer-horizon view sees two 25bp hikes this year, driven by energy shocks and sticky above-target inflation. Strategic projections in that camp see Eurozone 10Y yields rising from roughly 2.6% to a peak near 3.1% in 2026, then settling around 2.9% in 2027.
The picture splits by maturity. At the short end, researchers expect policy-driven moves higher. At the 2Y, one contrarian thread argues the German 2Y has already overshot and could partially reverse — a tactical caution, not a call for yields to fall. On the 10Y, a separate relative-value view holds the Bund-Treasury spread is 8–10bp too narrow, with US yields likely to underperform.