Published research is leaning bearish on eurozone government bonds, with analysts pointing to firmer rate-hike expectations and energy-driven inflation keeping yields elevated.
One camp of researchers now sees markets fully pricing roughly three ECB hikes through 2026, which flows directly into higher sovereign yields and lower bond prices. A separate published view warns the tightening path could prove steeper than previously assumed, citing energy import pressures and stagflation risk, though slowing growth may cap how far the ECB ultimately goes. A more formal forecast circulating this week pencils in two 25bp hikes in 2026 starting in June, as Middle East spillovers push eurozone inflation back above target into 2027.
The bear case is sharpest at the long end: German 30-year Bund yields are already at their highest since 2011, and technical research flags a fresh sell signal on Bund futures within a multi-year downtrend.
In euro credit, recently-published views skew toward relative-value switches rather than a directional macro call.