European bond yields pushed to fresh cycle — and in some cases multi-decade — highs this week, with published research broadly framing the move as a global repricing rather than a local accident.
Analysts pointed to German 10Y Bunds decoupling from US Treasuries and breaking higher, French OATs hitting new yield peaks, and Italian BTPs expected to follow. Drivers cited across the week were consistent: energy-led inflation, fiscal concerns (France flagged specifically), and portfolio outflows from Western sovereign debt.
On the ECB, the published consensus tilted firmly hawkish. Multiple research notes expected two to three 25bp hikes in 2026, with a first move flagged as likely in June, taking the deposit rate toward 2.5–2.75%. One strategic outlook argued the hiking cycle could reverse into cuts in 2027 as the energy shock fades.
Peripheral forecasts were nudged up: Spanish 10Y seen drifting to ~3.45% in 2026, Portuguese 10Y to ~3.40%, with Bund yields projected to peak near 2.95% — though some warned real yields still look too low given sticky inflation.