European government bonds are under pressure, and the published research consensus this week is uniformly bearish on near-term prospects.
The core argument from researchers is that markets are now pricing in roughly three ECB rate hikes over the coming year, with one strand of analysis pointing to a deposit rate climbing to 2.75% by year-end on three further 25bp moves. The ECB, in this view, remains locked onto inflation even as growth data softens.
A separate camp ties the Bund selloff to global forces rather than just euro-area dynamics. German 10-year yields rose 6bp on the day, which some recently published views frame as part of a broader developed-market move driven by energy price shocks and the spillover from a hawkish US inflation print.
Looking further out, one contrarian thread sees a 25bp hike pencilled in for the June 2026 meeting as the base case, with upside risk of additional tightening in Q3 if price pressures linger — a backdrop researchers argue keeps duration under sustained pressure.