European government bonds are under pressure across the board, with published research this week pointing to higher yields on German Bunds, French OATs, and Italian BTPs — and no notable bullish counter-view in circulation.
On the near-term picture, one camp of analysts argues Bund yields will stay above 3% and drift higher into year-end, pointing to markets pricing more than 70 basis points of ECB tightening by year-end and oil-driven inflation. A related view holds that the ECB will deliver two 25bp deposit rate hikes in 2026, starting in June, as eurozone inflation rebounds.
A more structural thread of recent research frames this as a regime change: German Bunds have broken to new cycle highs and no longer anchor global yields lower — they're now adding to upward pressure worldwide. Some recently published views tie Bunds and OATs into a broader G7 sovereign sell-off, driven by debt concerns and investors rotating away from Western government bonds. Italian BTPs, researchers suggest, are likely to follow peers to new yield highs even if they haven't broken out yet.