Post-midterm AI de-risking is running headfirst into a Fed still tilted toward a December hike, and markets are splitting on what to do about it.
On the Fed, the published research consensus is clear: another hike in December, with market pricing clustered around 77–80%. Oil leans the other way — multiple research desks expect Middle East de-escalation to drag prices lower, and one notable call pegs WTI near $50 within a year. On the AI selloff, several analyst teams argue the move is overdone and treat it as a buying opportunity.
Where researchers disagree is direction and timing on the S&P 500. One camp sees upside over the next few weeks to twelve months; a contrarian thread warns a 20% drawdown is close to unavoidable, with the Fed eventually forced to cut and Treasuries as the hedge. That sits directly against a published view looking for four more hikes through 2027.
Gold splits on horizon too — near-term bearish in some notes, with others arguing for a floor around $4,000. Nvidia draws key-man and regulatory concerns, though dip-buyers are pushing back. Bitcoin: near-term bearish in several recent pieces.