Published research this week points to an entrenched stagflationary squeeze across markets: Middle East tensions keep energy prices elevated, sticky inflation is pushing the Fed and other major central banks to stay tight, and the resulting jump in yields is tightening financial conditions globally — even as AI-driven equity bulls hold their ground.
The strongest cross-asset agreement among researchers is that developed-market yields are heading higher, structurally rather than temporarily. The common drivers cited: fiscal deficits, repricing of risk premium, and persistent inflation. That view feeds directly into dollar support and pressure on equity valuations.
On oil, the published consensus leans toward further upside in Brent and WTI, with Middle East supply risk the shared thread. On AI, several research threads still favour the core semiconductor and software names as multi-year winners despite near-term volatility.
The genuine disagreements: gold splits analysts between strategic hedge bulls and those calling it cyclically vulnerable, and a contrarian thread argues long bonds are quietly being bid and semis are due for rotation into defensives and small caps.