Today's cross-asset read: a higher-for-longer rate regime, radiating out from the US, is the dominant signal — alongside an AI capex boom and a Middle East-driven energy supply shock.
On US 10-year Treasury yields, published research shows unusually broad alignment that yields head higher, with one cyclical forecast pointing to a 5.30–5.50% range. The consensus across multiple research notes also sees Brent and WTI crude elevated on geopolitical risk, a stronger dollar on rate differentials, and continued upside in US tech and semiconductors tied to AI demand booked out to 2028–2030.
Gold is where researchers split. One camp argues it's structurally bid on central bank demand and geopolitics; a contrarian thread sees near-term downside as real yields rise into the US CPI print. It's less a disagreement than a horizon gap.
The most striking standalone call: a published rotation view trimming mega-cap tech back to benchmark weight and adding to equal-weighted laggards, drawing on late-1990s breadth analogs — a direct push against the prevailing AI-tech consensus.