Markets are caught in a tug-of-war: an energy and inflation shock is pushing bond yields higher, yet equities keep grinding up on strong earnings and AI momentum. The central tension every asset class is pricing right now is whether rising yields eventually break the equity bull, or whether earnings resilience keeps absorbing the hit.
Gold is where the published research consensus is tightest. A broad cluster of commodity, FX, and macro strategists argue the setup — fiscal deficits, central bank buying, a softer dollar, and geopolitical risk — still points higher, with only a couple of contrarian notes flagging near-term pullback risk.
On US equities, most recently-published views lean bullish on the S&P 500, citing earnings breadth and technical breakouts, with added conviction on tech tied to AI monetisation. The standout contrarian thread calls current conditions a "classic bubble," pointing to leverage spread across levered ETFs, options, and securities lending, plus consensus baking in 20%+ earnings growth for five straight years.
Researchers are also crowded into higher 10Y Treasury yields on fiscal supply and sticky inflation. Crude and the dollar are the real splits — both hinge on whether Middle East diplomacy holds.