Rates are climbing, credit is cracking a little, and yet equity bulls won't blink. That's the cross-asset tension published research is flagging today.
The strongest consensus across multiple research desks: US 10-year Treasury yields are pushing higher, driven by fiscal pressures, AI-related debt issuance, and Fed uncertainty. One camp of analysts even flags 5% as a possible overshoot. Credit spreads are widening on the same AI-capex supply wave, with researchers pointing to that dynamic persisting through 2027.
On commodities, the published consensus is unusually broad: gold has further upside across both tactical and long-horizon views, and copper is in a structural deficit as inventories sit at multi-month lows. Oil is the split — most researchers see Brent lower if a US-Iran deal or Hormuz reopening lands, while a contrarian thread argues those conditions won't materialize.
On equities, cyclical bulls dominate, favoring hyperscalers over chips as the AI earnings rotation matures. But a sharp strategic bear case argues hyperscaler profits are flattered by mark-to-market gains and that true multiples could be triple headline levels once AI depreciation flows through.