Two big crosscurrents are moving markets, according to this week's published research: a hawkish Fed is driving the dollar and US yields higher, while progress on an Iran ceasefire is draining the war premium out of oil. Researchers note the unusual pairing — one force pushing inflation narratives up, the other pulling them down.
The published consensus is broad on several calls. Most analysts surveyed see US 10-year Treasury yields rising, citing the hawkish FOMC pivot under Chair Warsh, sticky inflation, and a rebuild in term premium. A similar camp views the FOMC outcome as unambiguously dollar-positive. On crude, the bearish view is the widest agreement in today's research, anchored in returning Gulf supply. Several analysts also expect further Bank of Japan rate hikes.
Disagreements are sharpest on currencies. On USD/JPY, most see near-term upside as Fed hawkishness overwhelms BoJ signals, though one contrarian thread argues for gradual yen appreciation. On gold, strategic bulls cite reserve diversification while tactical bears point to dollar strength — largely a question of horizon. A minority view also argues disinflation is underappreciated, pushing back on the rates-up consensus.