Across-asset research this week pivoted hard around a hawkish Fed and a cooling Middle East.
The first FOMC under Chair Kevin Warsh landed materially more hawkish — dots revised up, forward guidance removed, and OIS markets pricing roughly 24bp of hikes by September. Several research desks shifted to a constructive dollar view for H2, citing US yield supremacy and the historical pattern of USD strength into a first hike, though one published forecast still sees DXY drifting to the mid-90s by 2027 as the geopolitical premium fades. A dissenting note argued falling headline inflation will stay the new Chair's hand.
On oil, the US–Iran MoU and reopening of Hormuz pushed Brent lower, with base-case paths toward $70 by 1H27. Equity research flagged downside risk into August–October from quarter-end rebalancing, buyback blackouts and midterm uncertainty, with semiconductors called stretched. Gilts moved higher on UK political risk, with analysts warning of spillover to global yields. Longer-horizon pieces stayed structurally bullish copper, uranium and gold.