Today's cross-asset story: a hawkish macro repricing is rippling through markets after strong US payrolls, even as a narrow AI/chip bid stages a tactical counter-rally in tech.
The published research consensus is clear that US 10-year Treasury yields face upward pressure, with strong jobs data, sticky inflation, and revived Fed hike pricing all cited. A broad group of analysts also expects the ECB to deliver a 25bp hike at its next meeting, with rising EURIBOR pointed to as confirmation. Dollar strength is another shared call — researchers converge on a firmer DXY and weaker AUD/USD. On energy, multiple research notes flag upside for Brent, met coal, and thermal coal on supply constraints and Middle East risk.
Where views split: on the S&P 500, one camp of analysts is tactically bullish on earnings, while a contrarian thread cites weak breadth, IPO supply, and rate sensitivity as downside risks. On Brent, some recently-published views see downside if the Strait of Hormuz reopens — a scenario split, not a direction call.
One notable contrarian position avoids hyperscaler tech and semis entirely, favoring energy, utilities, steel, and tobacco instead.