A blowout US jobs report has triggered a coordinated move across markets, and published research is broadly aligned on what comes next: higher yields, a stronger dollar, and pressure on risk assets — all while Middle East tensions threaten a second inflation shock through oil.
The consensus across recent research: US 2-year Treasury yields are pushing to new cycle highs, the dollar is broadly bid, and futures now fully price at least one more Fed hike by year-end. A separate camp of analysts sees the ECB delivering a June hike, pulling EUR/USD lower near-term. On oil, multiple research desks argue Brent and WTI have further upside while Strait of Hormuz closure risk persists — with one notably extreme published scenario flagging a potential return toward $130/bbl if the Strait stays shut past July.
Where views split is mostly about horizon, not direction. On gold, some recently-published views are tactically bearish (dollar strength, broken 200-day average) while a strategic camp stays bullish on central bank buying and currency debasement. On the S&P 500, one thread of research warns of a 5–13% near-term pullback from stretched positioning and incoming mega-cap tech IPO supply, while another holds constructive 12-month targets contingent on earnings delivery.