Energy-driven inflation is the wrecking ball moving every asset class right now, according to the weight of published research this week.
The dominant read: disruption around the Strait of Hormuz is pushing oil higher, dragging global yields up with it, and forcing central banks from the US to New Zealand toward tighter policy — a headwind for equities even as AI momentum keeps parts of the market bid.
Where the research consensus is strongest: crude stays elevated while Hormuz risk persists, with one widely-cited forecast pegging Brent near $110 in Q2. Analysts are broadly aligned that the New Zealand central bank hikes, lifting the kiwi, and that another major central bank raises rates in June.
Where researchers split: the US 10-year yield. One camp argues yields grind higher on inflation and fiscal strain; another expects an eventual decline toward 3.75% if Hormuz reopens — largely a horizon disagreement, not a true clash. The S&P 500 is the cleaner fight, with tactical bulls facing off against those flagging downside from stretched positioning.
One contrarian framework making rounds: zero developed-market sovereign bonds through 2030, overweight commodities and emerging markets, structurally bearish dollar.