Today's cross-asset story is a geopolitics trade: signs of US–Iran ceasefire progress and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are driving equities and Asian currencies higher while pushing oil and the dollar lower. But bond yields aren't cooperating — and that's the tension worth watching.
Published research this week broadly agrees on three near-term moves if Iran diplomacy holds: Brent crude lower as the war premium fades, the dollar softer, and European and US equities firmer. Where the consensus gets really strong is rates: multiple research threads argue US Treasury yields stay elevated or climb further, citing sticky inflation, a hawkish Fed, and the prospect of balance sheet reduction under incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
The disagreements are mostly about scenarios, not direction. On oil, one camp sees prices staying high if Hormuz stays blocked; another sees downside if a deal lands.
A contrarian thread stands out: a call that the S&P 500 tops this quarter while silver rips to $300–$500/oz — a full rotation out of equities into hard assets.