Copper's long-term setup is drawing a bullish consensus from independent research this week — though notably, none of it is a short-term trading call.
The common thread is supply. Researchers argue that SX-EW production (a lower-cost extraction method) has plateaued, copper demand has outpaced global GDP growth since 2011, and the IEA projects a roughly 25% shortfall in primary supply by 2035. A separate strand of published analysis points to falling mine productivity, 15 years of underinvestment in exploration, skills shortages, and permitting bottlenecks — concluding that prices likely need to rise to incentivize new mine capex. On the demand side, analysts repeatedly flag electrification, renewables, EVs, grid equipment, and AI data centres as structural tailwinds.
The caveats matter. One constructive view is explicitly conditional on AI infrastructure buildout continuing even under conservative assumptions, with no stated time horizon. Others concede commodity forecasting is inherently hard, and a more tactical camp urges discipline rather than chasing near-term strength.
By the numbers:
• Positioning (CFTC, as of 20 Oct 2026): Copper: speculators (managed money) are net long, 14.6% of open interest. Positioning is near the bottom of its 52-week range (COT index 26 of 100), not at an extreme. The net position fell by 13,368 contracts on the week.