Copper hit fresh record highs this week, with published research overwhelmingly bullish on the structural story even as tactical caution crept in.
The core thesis across most analysts: tight LME inventories, cancelled warrants, mine disruptions in Chile, and heavy US-bound flows ahead of potential tariffs are keeping the physical market strained. Layered on top are longer-run drivers — AI data center buildouts, grid rebuilds, electrification, and a decade of underinvestment in new supply. One mining CEO argued prices will clear $7/lb, calling it "only a question of when." A central bank deputy governor flagged surging copper wiring prices as a channel for imported inflation.
The caveat, voiced by several: speculative net long positioning sits at a record, and near-term price action looks stretched. A few researchers warned copper has run ahead of fundamentals on the AI narrative and could see a short-term wobble — though most framed any dip as a buying opportunity rather than a trend break.