Asset view · 11 August 2026

Copper: what research is saying

AI summary of published research · 11 August 2026

Published research is uniformly bullish on copper, with both a structural multi-year supply deficit thesis and near-term price forecast upgrades pointing higher.

Several recently-published views frame copper as the defining critical mineral of the coming decade. The bull case rests on fundamental scarcity: electrification, the AI and data-centre buildout, and rising defence spending are driving demand faster than new discoveries can replace. Researchers point to projections of a 35% supply deficit by 2035 and a 10-million-tonne gap by 2040. Government stockpiling — most visibly by the US — is layering on additional near-term demand and tightening available supply.

On the price side, one recently-upgraded research forecast now sees copper at $6.10/lb in 2026 (a marked revision higher) and holding near $6.00/lb through 2027, with no reversal expected across the forecast window.

The through-line across these published views: the supply-demand gap isn't a cyclical story — it's a structural one, and the price anchors are being reset upward to match.