Copper: the published research is leaning bullish, but with an important caveat.
Researchers argue speculative positioning on COMEX has climbed to its highest level since early 2021, supported by historically low inventories and ongoing mine-supply constraints. Even with soft Chinese import volumes, the tight physical picture is doing the heavy lifting, according to that view.
A parallel strand of recent analysis frames the case structurally: persistent supply shortages colliding with demand from data-center buildout and broader electrification. On that read, staying long base metals still makes sense.
A more cautious thread of research pushes back. It argues copper has run ahead of fundamentals and flags its historically tight correlation with equities — meaning a meaningful S&P 500 selloff, especially rising volatility into Q4, could trigger a sharp pullback.
The disagreement is partly about scenarios: the bearish view is explicitly conditional on equity weakness showing up, while the bullish camps focus on the physical market without that overlay.