Copper's structural bull case dominated the week, but late-stage cracks emerged.
The dominant thread across published research framed copper as a multi-year story: AI data centers, grid buildouts, electrification, and a projected $5 trillion Asian energy investment cycle running into chronically underinvested supply. Production cuts at Grasberg (-35%) and Kamoa-Kakula (-20%), plus record-low Chilean output, were repeatedly cited as tightening an already deficit market. One bullish call sees copper above $7/lb by year-end, with a US Section 232 report due June 30 potentially designating it critical to national security.
Tariff scenarios drew sharp focus mid-week: analysis suggested a confirmed 15% phased US tariff on refined copper from January 2027 would widen the COMEX-LME premium and lift both benchmarks, with a front-loaded 30% version pushing prices materially higher.
That said, the consensus softened somewhat late in the week, with multiple desks flagging technical breakdown risk, weak China demand signals, and a likely Q3-Q4 pullback as tariff-stockpiling fades.