Copper: published research leans bullish, but with a clear caveat.
Most of the recent research consensus argues copper has structural tailwinds — electrification, AI infrastructure buildout, power grid investment, and defense spending — with key technical support levels holding through recent macro turbulence. Some analysts also flag supply risks from El Niño rainfall disruptions in Chile and Peru.
A separate strand of analysis is more event-driven: researchers point to a potential 15% (or as high as 30%) US tariff on refined copper imports starting January 2027. They argue confirmation would lift COMEX copper, support LME copper via supply diverted elsewhere, and widen the COMEX–LME spread — with a 30 June tariff decision as the near-term catalyst. A delay or rejection is framed as the main downside risk to that view.
The contrarian thread warns copper trades tightly with US equities. If stocks roll over, this camp argues copper could fall two to three times harder, citing soft Chinese demand signals. The disagreement is really about equities, not copper fundamentals.