What research expects
One vote per research house: its most recent published view on this meeting, from 31 views published between 30 Sep 2026 and 24 Oct 2026. Views about later meetings are not counted.
The debate
Research is split on whether the Reserve Bank of Australia raises the cash rate by 25bp to 4.85% or holds at 4.60%. Many houses still forecast a hike, but a clear minority expect a hold, and several describe the meeting as live. Thin or conflicting notes make the call less firm than earlier in October.
The hike case rests on inflation. Deputy Governor Hauser said the outlook is 'materially worse' than the August forecasts, citing oil, the AI investment boom and domestic capacity limits. Minutes were hawkish, and researchers who expect a hike mostly condition it on September-quarter CPI printing broadly in line.
The hold case rests on a softening economy. Unemployment is 4.7%, above the RBA's 4.6% NAIRU assumption, house prices are falling, and growth has slowed. Governor Bullock suggested after September that four hikes may be enough, and policy lags are long. Holders still say risks lean toward a hike.
Market pricing for a November hike jumped to roughly even odds after Hauser spoke. The research does not name any policymaker who has set the decision in advance, and the bank gives no formal forward guidance. Its only official item in the period was a financial-resilience statement. The CPI release and a run of RBA appearances before the meeting should decide it.
What to watch
- Watch the quarterly CPI release before the meeting, especially trimmed mean against the roughly 0.9% quarterly pace many forecasters expect.
- Watch whether the statement keeps the hawkish language on upside inflation risks or leans toward a pause.
- Watch the Statement on Monetary Policy for revised inflation and unemployment forecasts, including any higher NAIRU assumption.
- Watch how the Governor describes the labour market, given past mixed messaging on whether it is still 'a little tight'.
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