What research expects
One vote per research house: its most recent published view on this meeting, from 11 views published between 23 Sep 2026 and 21 Oct 2026. Views about later meetings are not counted.
The debate
Research is split on the October 28 decision. Markets moved sharply toward a quarter-point hike after Governor Macklem's hawkish remarks, yet several notes say few economists expected one. Some houses switched to a hike call late, while others keep a hold as their base case. The consensus is not firm.
The hike case rests on inflation risk. Macklem said the risk of broader, more persistent inflation has risen and that the Bank finds it harder to look through energy prices. Researchers cite peers already tightening, a solid business survey and the need to protect credibility and expectations.
The hold case rests on a weak economy. Canada lost jobs in August and September, unemployment is about 6.5%, and core inflation is near 2%. Some houses see rising bond yields already tightening conditions, and expect hikes only in 2027. Others call the meeting a close call, or expect a hawkish hold that keeps December open.
Officials have given limited signals in the window. One speech said the Bank will weigh whether the policy rate balances inflation risks, will not raise rates if pressures are contained, and is ready to adjust. Senior officials said the policy rate should not target house prices.
What to watch
- Watch whether the statement and Monetary Policy Report stress broader, persistent inflation or keep the focus on energy-driven supply effects.
- Watch whether the statement signals a December move, which several researchers expect if the Bank holds.
- Watch how the Bank weighs the weak labour market against inflation risks in its new projections.
- Watch the press conference for how Macklem frames looking through energy prices versus acting pre-emptively.
What BoC officials have said
- 24 Sep 2026 · SpeechHawkish +0.3Bank of Canada
The Bank will assess whether the current policy rate balances the risks to inflation. It does not want to raise rates if inflationary pressures are contained, nor be too slow to respond if they become more persistent. It is prepared to adjust policy as needed.
inflationenergy pricestariffstrademonetary policyNavigating uncertainty and adapting to change →