US equities are drawing broadly bullish calls across published research — but a serious minority is warning the AI trade has run too far.
The constructive case, laid out across several recent research notes, rests on strong profit growth, heavy AI-related capex, and resilient labor markets. One camp of analysts favors memory chipmakers and enterprise software (Micron, Nvidia, Broadcom, Palantir, Snowflake, Shopify, CrowdStrike), arguing the market underprices how long this cycle lasts. Other published views overweight Tech, Healthcare, Financials, and Materials, citing obesity-drug adoption and solid bank credit.
The bearish thread is sharper than it was. A contrarian strain of research says the "commodity trade within the AI trade is done," pointing to Asian chip capacity driving oversupply. Others question whether semiconductor margins can keep expanding toward 49% EBIT by 2027. Former Fed official Jim Bullard, cited in one recent note, called AI capex enthusiasm a "bubble."
A rotation theme is also building in the research consensus — from chips and hardware into software and defensives (Utilities, Staples, Healthcare) and small caps into year-end.