US equities are getting a genuinely split verdict in this week's published research: tactical caution on the index, but constructive calls on AI, big tech, and select single names further out.
The core tension: earnings are still strong — one recent note points out 86% of S&P 500 companies beat Q2 estimates with 30%+ profit growth — but rising bond yields are squeezing rate-sensitive sectors. Several research desks now flag a likely 5–10% near-term drawdown, citing weakening market breadth and the historical pattern of ~9.6% pullbacks at the start of hiking cycles. One contrarian thread goes further, framing this as a late-cycle mania.
On AI and mega-cap tech, the published consensus stays constructive, with a notable shift toward AI adopters as earnings broaden beyond the chipmakers. Nvidia and Micron draw repeated bullish mentions tied to buybacks and high-bandwidth memory demand; Meta's AI app rollout is cited as a monetization catalyst. Nike is a rare cross-desk bearish call into earnings. Energy gets one standout bullish cyclical view on valuation.