US equities: the published research consensus is broadly constructive, with disagreement running along sectors and time horizons rather than the overall index.
Most recently published bullish views anchor on resilient earnings, AI-driven capex, and a firm labor market. One camp of analysts flags that the equity risk premium has compressed to just 8 basis points, arguing prices don't reflect 10-year yields near 5.5%, and suggests trimming long-duration growth. A contrarian thread warns that AI mega-cap concentration echoes prior bubble dynamics if the narrative turns.
The sharpest split is on AI. Several researchers favor US mega-cap AI and software leaders as relative outperformers, while others see tactical downside in the same names if investors sell winners to cover bond losses. Rate-sensitive pockets — utilities, staples, small caps, non-AI cyclicals — are widely cited as underperformers while yields stay high.
On single names, published research is bullish on Meta (AI agent launch, engagement) and Tesla (semi-truck, robotics), and bearish on dollar stores, subprime lenders, BNPL, and lower-end restaurants as lower-income credit deteriorates.