Stocks caught between a rate-hike hangover and a still-bullish long-term case.
Research published this week leaned into the idea that when the Fed hikes into a supply shock — think 1973 or 2022 — the S&P 500 tends to struggle, favoring defensives, value, dividend payers, low-beta names, and pricing-power sectors like energy, materials, staples, and health care. Technology and real estate were flagged as likely laggards while yields stay restrictive, and Meta was called out as pinned near the top of a wide range with resistance around $691.
Not everyone agreed. Other analysts held constructive medium-term views on equities, pointing to buybacks, post-midterm seasonality, and resilient earnings — one note carried a year-end S&P 500 target of 7,900 on forward EPS near $425. A separate long-horizon case argued for staying overweight tech, semis, industrials, materials, financials, and biotech as AI-driven capex compounds.
A more cautious thread warned that higher yields will eventually bite consumer activity and equity valuations.