US equities are caught between a bearish next-few-weeks setup and a still-constructive six-to-twelve month view, according to research published this week.
On the cautious side, analysts point to elevated yields, higher oil, Middle East risk, and classic September seasonality as reasons to expect more volatility. Technical work flagged in recent notes highlights a weakening S&P 500 — a bearish MACD crossover, neutral momentum, and softening breadth across most sectors — with one camp suggesting investors trim into rallies. A contrarian thread warns that if the yen carry trade unwinds, crowded US tech and semiconductor names could face forced selling, alongside rate-sensitive REITs.
The more constructive published view argues the bull market remains intact, anchored by solid nominal GDP, earnings growth, and durable AI capex. Sector preferences skew toward Industrials, Energy, Healthcare, Financials, Software, Banks, Biotech, and AI infrastructure and grid names. Some recently-published views also flag energy majors as near-term winners from firmer oil.
The apparent split is mostly about horizon, not fundamentals.