US equities: the published research consensus tilts bullish, driven by the AI capex boom — but a real debate is brewing about how concentrated that trade has become.
Most research this week frames AI-driven capital spending as a genuine earnings engine, with one camp of analysts arguing it lifts S&P 500 and tech earnings well above historical trend. Others see a broader US economic pickup — stronger manufacturing, rising bank lending — supporting a cyclical overweight. Nvidia draws unusually bullish attribution, with some published projections pointing to revenues near $750bn by 2027. Software is flagged as recovering, with Salesforce singled out as beginning a re-rating on undemanding valuation, and Marvell called out for accelerating AI infrastructure exposure. Power grid names tied to data centre demand also get a mention.
The contrarian thread is sharper than usual. Some recently-published views argue the entire market is "one trade" concentrated in AI, with Oracle particularly exposed via its OpenAI-linked backlog — a scenario, not a base case. Others flag near-term technical downside if key S&P support breaks.
The real disagreement is whether AI monetisation holds up through H2.