Published research this week leans bullish on US equities — but a vocal minority is warning of a serious AI-bubble correction.
The bullish case, laid out across several recent research notes, rests on three legs: Q2 earnings came in strong, with roughly 86% of companies beating EPS estimates and margins broadening; AI capex from cash-rich hyperscalers is seen as more durable than past tech cycles; and technicals look constructive, with about 70% of S&P 500 names above their 200-day average and bullish chart patterns across major indices. Small caps and homebuilders are also getting fresh bullish call-outs, the latter tied to a claimed turn in the housing cycle.
The bear camp argues AI spending lacks real ROI and that a 50%+ S&P drawdown is plausible once hyperscaler revenues disappoint. A separate contrarian thread points to stretched money-supply-linked valuations and rising financial-sector risk.
Nvidia is the sharpest split: some researchers call it overwhelmingly bullish near-term, while others see it as the single name most exposed to an AI revenue reset.