Published research is broadly bullish on US stocks over the cyclical horizon — even as a short-term wobble around Q2 chip and AI earnings tempers the mood.
The core bull case, echoed across multiple recent research notes, is that AI-driven earnings strength is broadening beyond the mega-cap tech names into financials and industrials. One camp of analysts pegs fair value for the S&P 500 at 7,650–7,750 into H2 2026, citing above-trend nominal GDP. Others estimate US AI and data-center capex alone is adding roughly half a point to GDP. A more colorful thread of recent research likens today's setup to the 1997–98 pre-bubble phase — with 16–24 months of upside still to run.
Under the surface, researchers are flagging financials, industrials, and energy as beneficiaries of broadening leadership. On consumer discretionary, published views genuinely split: some see sticky inflation as a drag, others expect cooling prices to help. And a contrarian thread warns Q2 earnings could trigger a "sell-the-news" reaction in AI names near-term.