US equity research is sharply split right now: a bullish majority sees more upside in the S&P 500, semis, value stocks, and select mega-cap tech — while a vocal bearish camp warns the AI earnings story is a bubble nearing reckoning.
Bulls in the published research point to record buybacks, strong earnings, and an AI infrastructure cycle still in early innings. One widely circulated view argues the S&P 500 could push toward 8,000 by year-end, with index-rebalance dips treated as buying opportunities. Other researchers argue semiconductors are only a third of the way through the AI buildout and still trade below broad market multiples. A separate strand highlights financials, industrials, and healthcare as the next leg, with small caps flagged as historically cheap versus large caps.
The bearish thread of recent research counters that AI capex echoes past bubbles — with hyperscaler depreciation potentially exceeding combined earnings by 2030, and names like Nvidia and Micron at risk of steep drawdowns once the cycle peaks. A contrarian view also frames mega-cap tech as shifting from cash-generative to heavily levered.
Micron is the clearest battleground: bullish research cites pricing power and AI memory demand; bearish research sees peak-cycle margins.