US equities: published research is broadly bullish on the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and AI-linked names — but SpaceX's IPO valuation is the sharpest point of disagreement, and a minority warn of serious medium-term downside.
The bull case in recent research rests on resilient US growth, S&P 500 earnings roughly doubling since 2019, AI-related capex now above 2% of GDP, and Q1 earnings up 27% year-on-year. Several analyst camps argue forward valuations on AI leaders aren't stretched versus past bubble peaks, and that earnings upgrades justify staying fully invested. Names flagged as cleaner AI plays include Nvidia, Micron, and Alphabet.
A contrarian thread of recent research is far more cautious — comparing US equity valuations relative to GDP to 1929 and late-1980s Japan, and flagging a potential 20–50% drawdown into year-end or beyond. A separate critique singles out megacap tech, arguing aggressive AI capex and equity issuance are quietly diluting returns.
On SpaceX, one camp sees 90–110x revenue as historically toxic for future returns; another expects a sentiment-driven pop and a $1.5–2T valuation.