Published research this week tilts bearish on US equities in the near term, with bullish pockets clustered around mega-cap tech and longer-horizon views.
The bear case is mostly macro, not fundamental. Several research notes argue rising Treasury yields are increasingly hard to reconcile with current equity valuations, and that stocks haven't fully absorbed what the bond market is pricing. One camp points to bearish seasonality, high oil prices, and fading earnings tailwinds. Others warn that crowded reflation trades leave equities exposed to de-risking absent a Fed pivot. A more structural concern in recent research: widening divergence between high-yield credit and the S&P 500 hints at credit stress that could spill into stocks.
On the bull side, some analysts frame NVIDIA's blowout earnings — huge beats, 75% gross margins, guidance well above consensus — as a catalyst that could push the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 to fresh highs. A contrarian thread argues inflation pressure on equities is temporary, with AI-driven disinflation still intact longer term.
Strategically, the published consensus is more constructive, with long-term US equity returns pegged near 6.5% annualised despite elevated valuations.