US equities pushed to fresh highs this week, but the published research split sharply on whether the rally can broaden — or whether it's setting up for a correction.
Early-week bullish notes leaned hard into the AI infrastructure trade: Nvidia, Broadcom, Microsoft, and Oracle were flagged as core beneficiaries of a durable capex cycle, while most other software names were viewed as exposed to AI-driven competition. One regime read called it a confirmed "low-vol bull," with the S&P 500 trading well above its 50-day average and the VIX subdued. Constructive earnings work pointed to ~17% Q1 S&P 500 EPS growth and an 84% beat rate, with small caps (S&P 600) and mid caps (S&P 400) hitting new highs on broad earnings momentum.
By late week, the consensus turned more cautious. Multiple research threads flagged extreme extension versus moving averages, narrow leadership, and a parabolic move in semiconductors pricing in 2028 earnings — arguing for a 20–40% chip pullback and rotation into value, healthcare, energy, and equal-weight names.