US equities are riding a low-volatility bull regime, with published research broadly constructive on the S&P 500 and AI infrastructure names commanding the highest conviction.
Several research notes this week point to a confirmed risk-on backdrop: the VIX sits near 17.4, realized volatility is fading, and geopolitical risk premiums have eased. One camp of analysts expects Q1 S&P 500 earnings to grow roughly 17% — the fastest pace in four years — with AI framed as a durable earnings catalyst. A related thread argues AI-driven productivity is quietly suppressing trend inflation and wage pressures, supporting equities over the next 12 months. Researchers covering hyperscalers see compute shortages and rising token demand fueling revenue through 2026.
Conviction is most concentrated in AI infrastructure — Nvidia, Broadcom, Microsoft, Oracle — which the consensus frames as still early-innings on a 3–5 year view. A contrarian thread is bearish on broader software and SaaS outside that core, citing AI-enabled competition and customer churn. Healthcare names tied to demographic demand also draw positive mentions.
Disagreement is mostly about timing. Some technically-oriented research flags a near-term pullback as overdue, and one outlier view warns of an eventual 40–60% drawdown tied to labor and housing weakness — a call no other research echoes. Another note pushes back on the "broad market" narrative, noting the equal-weighted index is near relative year-to-date lows.