Central banks are tilting hawkish on inflation, even as a few quietly ease. That's the signal from this week's official communications and research.
Researchers tracking the UK note one MPC voter is pushing to lean proactively against second-round wage and energy effects, citing sticky pay growth and tighter labour slack. In Sweden, a voting Deputy Governor has argued September's inflation risks justify slightly faster rate normalisation ahead of the next decision in two weeks. The Philippines' central bank is running oil and El Niño scenarios while anchoring expectations near its 3% target.
Not everyone agrees. A separate strand of official research argues the textbook response to short-lived supply shocks with anchored expectations is to look through first-round effects — a softer stance than the risk-management view above.
Elsewhere: Kazakhstan cut to 16.25% but flagged persistent inflation risks. The PBOC plans to make the overnight repo its primary policy rate. Published euro-area research framed a new liquidity facility offering up to EUR 50bn per central bank from Q4 2026.
By the numbers:
• Policy rates: Fed 3.75–4.00%, ECB 2.50%, BoE 3.75%, BoJ 1.25%.
• Next decisions: Fed 28 Oct 2026 (50 of 51 research houses expect a hold); ECB 29 Oct 2026 (32 of 32 research houses expect a hold); BoE 5 Nov 2026 (15 of 15 research houses expect a hike); BoJ 30 Oct 2026 (24 of 24 research houses expect a hold).
Charts: finchiefs.com/data/policy-rates