Macro driver · 25 October 2026

Policy makers: what research is saying

AI summary of published research · 25 October 2026

Policy divergence sharpened this week as central banks pulled in different directions on inflation, liquidity, and geopolitical risk.

In India, researchers highlighted the RBI's shift to calibrated tightening with a 25bp hike to 5.50%, with officials signalling cuts are off the table and the next move is a pause or further hike. CPI is projected to peak near 5.9% in Q3 FY27, even as Q1 GDP surprised at 7.8%.

In the euro area, published analysis flagged repo rates drifting toward the deposit facility rate as excess liquidity drains, with ECB voices arguing policymakers should tolerate more money-market volatility rather than smooth every move. A new standing repo line for non-euro central banks goes live in Q4. Consumer inflation expectations ticked up to 3.1%, with Middle East energy pressures cited.

Sweden's Riksbank is weighing faster normalisation amid a weaker krona and energy-driven inflation risk. In Japan, researchers noted BOJ hikes have lifted the call rate toward 1.25%, while flagging AI-investment profitability doubts as a global stability risk.

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