Central banks are tilting hawkish as the Middle East energy shock pushes headline inflation above target — with China the clear exception.
According to published research summaries, the ECB sees the energy shock as too large to look through, after back-to-back 25bp hikes left the door open to more tightening; euro area inflation hit 3.8% in September with core at 2.5%. One camp of analysts tracking the Bank of England highlights a hawkish MPC voice arguing that holding Bank Rate steady lacks credibility, pointing to sticky wages, less slack than assumed, and household inflation expectations near 4.5%. Reporting on the Philippine central bank — already 75bp tighter this year — flags a willingness to take "unpopular decisions," while the Czech central bank under Governor Aleš Michl signals continued hawkishness. A contrarian thread notes a BOJ official suggesting the neutral rate sits well above 1% and warning against excessive caution on further hikes.
The outlier: the PBOC under Pan Gongsheng, described as accommodative and preparing framework reform.