Central banks are splitting on how to handle the Middle East energy shock, and published research this week makes the divergence clear.
Analysts tracking one major central bank highlight a quiet shift toward a "rigidity-centrality-weighted" inflation gauge, running at 3.3% in August with no energy pass-through yet — framing that lets policymakers look through the oil shock unless wages and broad prices move.
The published consensus reads ECB President Lagarde as leaning hawkish, calling the energy shock too large to fully ignore but favoring a measured response. Commentary around other European officials reinforces a hold-with-hawkish-bias stance, conditional on wage data. A contrarian thread of recent research flags a Bank of Japan board member as the week's most hawkish voice, warning against excessive caution on further hikes.
PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng stands apart, pledging "appropriately accommodative" policy and announcing framework reforms — including shifting the main policy anchor toward an overnight rate. Norges Bank, meanwhile, hiked to 4.25% and signaled more to come.
Researchers note the common thread: energy shock, divergent responses.