Platinum's 2025 rally looks like it's running on fumes, according to recently published research arguing prices could fall below $1,250/oz in 2026.
The bearish case rests on a simple read: this year's surge was driven more by speculation than fundamentals. Analysts in this camp point to mounting structural headwinds — accelerating EV adoption is steadily chipping away at demand for platinum in catalytic converters, and jewelry demand is softening at the same time.
On the supply side, the research consensus suggests the deficit that helped fuel the rally is set to narrow. Add in the likelihood that speculative ETF inflows fade as the story loses momentum, and there's no durable catalyst left to hold prices at current levels, the argument goes.
The takeaway from this published view: without a fundamental demand story to replace the speculative one, platinum's path of least resistance into next year is lower.